At the last Cologne R user meeting Holger Zien gave a great introduction to dynamic linear models (dlm). One special case of a dlm is the Kalman filter, which I will discuss in this post in more detail. I kind of used it earlier when I measured the temperature with my Arduino at home. Over the last week I came across the wonderful quantitative economic modelling site quant-econ.net, designed and written by Thomas J.

It is getting colder in London, yet it is still quite mild considering that it is late November. Well, indoors it still feels like 20°C (68°F) to me, but I have been told last week that I should switch on the heating. Luckily I found an old thermometer to check. The thermometer showed 18°C. Is it really below 20°C? The thermometer is quite old and I’m not sure that is works properly anymore.

Rasmus’ post of last week on binomial testing made me think about p-values and testing again. In my head I was tossing coins, thinking about gender diversity and toast. The toast and tossing a buttered toast in particular was the most helpful thought experiment, as I didn’t have a fixed opinion on the probabilities for a toast to land on either side. I have yet to carry out some real experiments.

Following on from last week, where I presented a simple example of a Bayesian network with discrete probabilities to predict the number of claims for a motor insurance customer, I will look at continuous probability distributions today. Here I follow example 16.17 in Loss Models: From Data to Decisions [1]. Suppose there is a class of risks that incurs random losses following an exponential distribution (density $f(x) = \Theta {e}^{- \Theta x}$) with mean $1/\Theta$.

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