Forecast

Who will win the World Cup and which prediction model?

The World Cup has finally kicked off last Thursday and I have seen some fantastic games already. Perhaps the Netherlands appears to be the strongest side so far, following their 5-1 victory over Spain. To me the question is not only which country will win the World Cup, but also which prediction model will come closest to the actual results. Here I present three teams, FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation website, Groll & Schauberger, two academics from Munich and finally Lloyd’s of London, the insurance market.

How many more R-bloggers posts can I expect?

I noticed that the monthly number of posts on R-bloggers stopped increasing over the last year. Indeed, the last couple of months saw a decline in posts compared to the previous year. Thus, has most been said and written about R already? Who knows? Well, I took a stab at looking into the future. However, I can tell you already that I am not convinced by my predictions. But maybe someone else will be inspired to take this work forward.

Review: K├Âlner R Meeting 19 July 2013

Despite the hot weather and the beginning of the school holiday season in North Rhine Westphalia the Cologne R user group met yet again for two fascinating talks and beer and schnitzel afterwards. Analysing Twitter data to evaluate the US Dollar / Euro exchange rates Dietmar Janetzko presented ideas to forecast US Dollar / Euro exchange rate movements for the following day. To forecast exchange rate movements, Dietmar distinguishes two school of thoughts.